The Bull Is Roaring...But Watch Your Step

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The Roar of The Bull: A Cautious Bull In a China Shop of Volatility

Table of Contents

1. Introduction: Feeling the Pulse of a Complicated Market

2. The Lifeline Economy: SNAP Benefits and the Real-World Impact

3. Drums of a New Era: Defense Spending and Nuclear Posturing

4. The Friendly Skies Get Friendlier (in Europe): Ryanair’s Unexpected Tailwind

5. Black Gold Rush: Consolidation in the Permian Basin

6. The Digital Wild West: Your Weekly Crypto Watchlist

7. The AI Tsunami: OpenAI’s Deals Are Reshaping Reality

8. The World on a Chessboard: Geopolitics and Your Portfolio

9. Crystal Ball Gazing: Our Stock Market Forecast

10. Final Thoughts & Parting Wisdom

Introduction: Feeling the Pulse of a Complicated Market

There’s a feeling in the air, isn’t there? You can almost taste it. It’s that electric hum of a market that wants to run, a bull pawing at the dirt, ready to charge. The indices are flirting with all-time highs, headlines are screaming about multi-billion-dollar deals, and the relentless march of innovation feels like it’s accelerating into a blur. By all accounts, the party should be in full swing. We should be popping champagne and high-fiving strangers. And yet… there’s a hesitation. A tremor. A collective holding of breath.

Welcome to the great paradox of late 2025. We’re living through a bull market, but it feels less like a confident stampede and more like a cautious, heavy-footed bull tip-toeing through a china shop packed with Ming vases of volatility. Every step forward is measured, every glance is wary. The floorboards are creaking under the weight of geopolitical tension, the shelves are rattling with whispers of shutdowns and trade wars, and the ever-present shadow of nuclear posturing looms in the corner.

It’s an exhausting environment to invest in, let alone live in. One moment, you’re reading about OpenAI signing deals that sound like the GDP of a small country, and you feel the undeniable pull of a technological revolution that promises to reshape humanity. The next, you see a headline about a new military mission or a “new era of nuclear weapons,” and a primal fear grips you, making you want to sell everything and stuff cash under the mattress.

This is the tightrope we walk. It’s a market of dueling narratives. On one side, you have the sheer, unadulterated power of human ingenuity. Artificial intelligence is a tangible economic force, a tidal wave of capital and ambition so large it’s hard to comprehend. Companies are forging partnerships that will define the next century. On the other side, you have the age-old, messy, and unpredictable nature of human politics. Tensions between global superpowers, regional conflicts, and domestic political squabbles that threaten to shut down the very government that prints the money we’re all chasing.

So, how do we navigate this? How do we embrace the roar of the bull without getting gored? How do we sidestep the fragile porcelain of volatility?

The answer isn’t to run and hide. It’s to become a smarter, more aware participant. It’s about understanding that these dueling forces are not mutually exclusive; they are the very fabric of the modern market. The opportunities are real, but so are the risks. The key is to see the whole board. It’s about recognizing that the resumption of SNAP benefits isn’t just a news brief; it’s a critical indicator of consumer health and political instability. It’s understanding that a European airline’s profit surge is a direct reflection of global travel patterns shaped by diplomacy, or the lack thereof.

In this briefing, we’re going to do just that. We’ll tear apart the headlines, look behind the curtain, and connect the dots.

This isn’t a market for the faint of heart. It demands diligence, a strong stomach, and a healthy dose of skepticism mixed with audacious optimism. The bull is roaring, but the china shop is real. Let’s learn how to dance.

The Lifeline Economy: SNAP Benefits and the Real-World Impact

In the hallowed halls of finance, it’s easy to get lost in abstracts. We talk about P/E ratios, algorithmic trading, and macroeconomic indicators until the numbers blur into a meaningless soup. But sometimes, the most potent market-moving news has nothing to do with a quarterly earnings report and everything to do with a loaf of bread.

The recent announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the Trump administration has approved partial Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for November is one such moment. As the federal government shutdown continues to be a political football, this decision provides a crucial, albeit temporary, lifeline for millions of American families. For them, this isn’t about portfolio allocation; it’s about putting food on the table.

From a human perspective, it’s a sigh of relief. From a market perspective, it’s a complex signal that warrants a much deeper look. On the surface, the logic is simple: when people have money for groceries, they go to the grocery store. This is a direct injection of capital into the consumer staples sector. But the story underneath is far more nuanced, touching on consumer behavior, political instability, and the true health of the American economy.

The Obvious Winners: The Grocery Giants

The most immediate beneficiaries are, of course, the retailers where these benefits are spent. Two titans stand out:

• Walmart (WMT): Walmart isn’t just a retailer; it’s a core part of the American economic infrastructure. It is, by a significant margin, the largest recipient of SNAP dollars in the country. Some estimates suggest that as much as 18-20% of all SNAP benefits are redeemed at Walmart stores. The resumption of these payments, even if partial, is a direct boost to their top-line revenue. When you look at Walmart’s stock, you aren’t just betting on their e-commerce growth or their supply chain efficiency; you’re also betting on the stability of the American consumer, particularly in the lower and middle-income brackets. The November SNAP funds act as a floor for their sales this month, providing a level of certainty in an otherwise uncertain environment. A prolonged shutdown without benefits would have been a significant headwind for WMT’s fourth-quarter performance. This news mitigates that risk substantially.

• Kroger (KR): As one of the largest pure-play grocery chains in the United States, Kroger is another primary destination for SNAP recipients. Their business model is finely tuned to the rhythms of American grocery shopping. While they may not have the sheer scale of Walmart’s SNAP redemption, the impact is arguably more concentrated on their core business. Unlike Walmart, which sells everything from tires to televisions, Kroger’s health is almost entirely dependent on what goes into shopping carts. The flow of SNAP funds directly impacts their same-store sales figures, a key metric watched by Wall Street. For KR, this news isn’t just good; it’s essential. It ensures that a predictable and significant portion of their customer base maintains its purchasing power.

Beyond the Checkout Aisle: The Deeper Implications

While WMT and KR are the frontline beneficiaries, the story doesn’t end there. Think about the entire supply chain. Companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and General Mills (GIS) see their products flying off the shelves at these stores. The stability of SNAP benefits is, in a way, a government-backed subsidy for the entire consumer-packaged goods industry.

However, we must see this news for what it truly is: a band-aid on a political wound. The very fact that we are discussing “partial” benefits and “shutdowns” is a glaring red flag for market stability. It screams political dysfunction. This creates a challenging environment for investors. While the consumer staples sector gets a temporary boost, the underlying cause—a gridlocked government—is a significant risk for the broader market. It impacts everything from federal contracts for defense firms to the speed of FDA approvals for biotech companies.

Our Opinion: A Defensive Play in a Chaotic Game

The resumption of SNAP benefits reinforces our belief that in a volatile market, a defensive posture is a smart one. Consumer staples stocks like Walmart (WMT) and Kroger (KR) are often considered “boring” during bull runs. They don’t offer the explosive growth of a tech startup or the speculative thrill of a crypto token. But in a china shop, boring is beautiful.

These companies sell things people need, not just things they want. That provides a level of demand inelasticity that is incredibly valuable when economic uncertainty is high. This SNAP news is a microcosm of that principle: even when the government is in disarray, mechanisms are put in place to ensure people can still buy essentials.

Therefore, we see this as a confirmation of the “barbell” strategy. On one end of your portfolio, you have your high-growth, high-risk plays (like the AI stocks we’ll discuss later). On the other, you need the anchors. The stalwarts. The companies that will weather the storm because their business is fundamental to daily life. WMT and KR are prime examples. They may not double overnight, but they are far less likely to halve because of a political spat in Washington.

Drums of a New Era: Defense Spending and Nuclear Posturing

There’s a chill running through the geopolitical landscape, and it has nothing to do with the autumn weather. When world leaders start throwing around phrases like “new era of nuclear weapons,” as Finland’s leader recently did, it’s impossible for the market to ignore. This isn’t the distant, Cold War-era tension of our parents’ generation. This feels immediate, technologically advanced, and far more complex.

The rhetoric has been escalating. President Trump recently claimed that China, Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are conducting underground nuclear tests. While these claims are difficult to verify, perception is reality in the world of global strategy. The response from the U.S. has been swift. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made a point to clarify that upcoming American tests will focus on “delivery systems” and will not involve actual nuclear detonations.

This is a very carefully worded distinction. It’s a strategic message: “We are modernizing our capabilities without breaking moratoriums on explosive testing.” It’s an attempt to project strength and technological superiority without being seen as the primary aggressor. But let’s be blunt: whether you’re testing the bomb or the missile that carries it, you are actively investing in and advancing your nuclear war-fighting capabilities. And that means one thing for investors: money is flowing, and it’s flowing into the defense sector.

The Architects of Modern Warfare

When nations decide to upgrade their arsenals, they don’t go to a hardware store. They turn to a handful of highly specialized, technologically advanced corporations that form the backbone of the military-industrial complex. Two of these giants are perfectly positioned to benefit from this “new era.”

• Lockheed Martin (LMT): If the U.S. government is a customer, Lockheed Martin is its most trusted vendor. LMT is a behemoth in the defense world, with its hands in everything from next-generation fighter jets like the F-35 to missile defense systems and hypersonic technology. The focus on “delivery systems” is music to Lockheed’s ears. They are the ones who build the platforms—the missiles, the submarines, the bombers—that are essential for a credible nuclear deterrent. A renewed focus on modernizing the nuclear triad (land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers) means massive, long-term contracts for which Lockheed is a primary competitor. Their stock performance is often a direct barometer of global tension. As uncertainty rises, so does the perceived need for their products, leading to a “flight to safety” within the industrial sector towards companies like LMT. With a current dividend yield providing a steady income stream, it’s a company that offers both growth potential from new contracts and a defensive quality. Their backlog, which already stands in the hundreds of billions, is likely to swell in this environment.

• Northrop Grumman (NOC): While Lockheed is often associated with the flashy fighters, Northrop Grumman is the master of the big, strategic pieces of the puzzle. They are the prime contractor for the B-21 Raider, the next-generation stealth bomber designed to penetrate the most advanced air defenses on the planet and deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads. The B-21 program alone is a multi-decade, hundred-billion-dollar-plus endeavor. Furthermore, Northrop Grumman is leading the modernization of the nation’s land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force through the Sentinel program. When the conversation turns to nuclear delivery systems, you are talking directly about Northrop Grumman’s core business. The current geopolitical climate is a hurricane at their back, propelling their most significant and profitable programs forward. An investment in NOC is a direct investment in the long-term, structural modernization of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.

The Ripple Effect and the Moral Calculus

The impact extends beyond just these two giants. A vast ecosystem of subcontractors and suppliers, from sensor manufacturers to cybersecurity firms, will see increased business. Companies like Raytheon (RTX) and General Dynamics (GD) are also key players in missile defense, command and control systems, and nuclear submarines, respectively.

However, it’s impossible to discuss this sector without acknowledging the moral dimension. For some, investing in companies that produce weapons of war is a non-starter, regardless of the potential financial returns. This is a personal decision every investor must make. The rise of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investing has put a spotlight on these choices.

Our Opinion: A Necessary Evil in an Unstable World

From a purely financial and strategic perspective, the direction of travel is clear. Increased global instability and the explicit focus on military modernization by world powers create a powerful and durable catalyst for the defense sector. It’s a grim reality, but in a world where hard power is once again taking center stage, the companies that forge that power become critical assets.

We see stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) as long-term strategic holdings for a diversified portfolio. They are not speculative plays. Their revenue streams are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government (and its allies), providing a level of stability that is hard to find elsewhere. The current rhetoric and policy shifts are not a short-term blip; they signal a multi-year, if not multi-decade, cycle of increased defense investment.

While we hope for a world where these products are never used, the reality of the market is that it prices in risk. And right now, the risk of global conflict is being priced in, which translates to a clear and undeniable bull case for the defense industry. It’s a sobering thought, but one that a pragmatic investor cannot afford to ignore.

The Friendly Skies Get Friendlier (In Europe): Ryanair’s Unexpected Tailwind

In a market obsessed with AI and geopolitics, it’s easy to overlook the simple, powerful stories unfolding in traditional industries. The tale of Ryanair (RYAAY) is one such story. The budget airline recently reported a stunning 40% profit boost, a figure that would make most tech CEOs green with envy. But the reason behind this surge is what’s truly fascinating. It’s a direct consequence of the shifting sands of global travel and a reflection of how geopolitical tensions can create unexpected winners.

The core reason cited for this boom? A reluctance among European travelers to fly to the United States. While the report doesn’t spell it out in black and white, it’s not hard to connect the dots. The combination of a strong U.S. dollar making transatlantic trips more expensive, lingering political frictions, and a general sense of “America-fatigue” has led many Europeans to look closer to home for their holidays. They are trading the long haul to New York or Florida for a short hop to Lisbon, Rome, or the Greek isles.

And who dominates the short-hop European travel market? Ryanair. Their entire business model is built on this principle: high-frequency, low-cost flights between European cities. They have created a sprawling network that has become the de facto bus service of the European skies. This shift in consumer preference isn’t a market they had to fight for; it’s a market that fell right into their lap.

The Ryanair Machine and Its Wider Implications

• Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY): Ryanair is a masterclass in operational efficiency and ruthless cost control. Their “no-frills” approach, while often lampooned by customers, is an incredibly effective business strategy. They maximize aircraft utilization, negotiate hard on airport fees, and upsell customers on every conceivable ancillary service. This profit surge demonstrates the immense operating leverage in their model. When passenger numbers increase and load factors (the percentage of seats filled) are high, profits don’t just inch up; they explode. The current trend of intra-European travel preference acts as a powerful tailwind, allowing them to fill their planes while maintaining pricing power. An investment in RYAAY is a bet on the continuation of this trend and on the enduring appeal of budget travel, especially in an inflationary environment where consumers are looking to stretch their euros further.

This phenomenon has broader implications for the entire travel ecosystem. It signals a divergence in the recovery and growth paths of different segments of the industry.

• Booking Holdings (BKNG): As one of the world’s largest online travel agencies (OTAs), Booking Holdings is uniquely positioned to capture this trend. Their strength lies in the European market, with brands like Booking.com being the dominant platform for hotel and accommodation reservations across the continent. As travelers opt for Spain over California, they are turning to Booking.com to find their lodging. Unlike an airline with fixed routes, BKNG is a platform that profits from travel volume, wherever it may be. The shift to intra-European travel is a net positive for them, as it likely involves more individual bookings (e.g., a week in Italy, a weekend in Prague) compared to a single, long-duration trip to the U.S. They benefit from the churn and the sheer number of transactions.

• Airbnb (ABNB): Airbnb also stands to gain significantly. The company’s model thrives on authentic, local travel experiences, which aligns perfectly with the current trend. A family that might have rented a large house in Orlando for two weeks might now be doing a multi-city tour of Portugal, staying in different Airbnb apartments along the way. ABNB’s vast and diverse inventory of properties across Europe makes it a natural beneficiary. Furthermore, the platform’s flexibility allows it to adapt quickly to changing demand patterns without the capital-intensive burden of building new hotels. If demand spikes for villas in Tuscany, the supply can organically increase as more hosts list their properties. This agility is a massive advantage in a fluid travel market.

Our Opinion: Follow the Money (and the Tourists)

The Ryanair story is a perfect example of second-order thinking. The first-order thought is “geopolitical tension is bad for travel.” The second-order, more nuanced thought is “geopolitical tension is bad for some travel, but it redirects demand and creates opportunities elsewhere.”

We believe the intra-European travel boom is not a fleeting trend. The economic and political factors driving it are likely to persist. This creates a compelling case for being overweight in companies with strong European exposure within the travel sector.

Ryanair (RYAAY) is the most direct play, a pure-blooded bet on the European budget traveler. Booking Holdings (BKNG) is a broader, more diversified way to play the same theme, capturing not just the flights but the entire trip. Airbnb (ABNB) offers a growth-oriented angle, benefiting from the shift towards more flexible and localized travel experiences.

While the major U.S. carriers might face headwinds from reduced inbound tourism from Europe, these three companies are catching a powerful wave. It’s a potent reminder that in a globalized world, every action has a reaction, and savvy investors can profit by understanding where the ripples will lead. Sometimes, the biggest opportunities aren’t in the headlines about conflict, but in the quiet decisions of millions of travelers choosing a different destination.

Black Gold Rush: Consolidation In The Permian Basin

While the world’s attention is fixated on the digital gold of AI and crypto, a very old-school gold rush is continuing to reshape the American heartland. In the vast, sun-scorched plains of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, a different kind of deal-making is afoot. The recent announcement of a merger creating a new $13 billion oil and gas behemoth focused squarely on this region is the latest chapter in a powerful story: consolidation.

This is a signal of a fundamental shift in the U.S. shale industry. The go-go days of wildcatters borrowing heavily to drill at all costs are over. The new era is about scale, efficiency, and shareholder returns. The big players are getting bigger, swallowing up smaller rivals to create contiguous acreage, streamline operations, and squeeze every last drop of profit from the rock.

Why the Permian? It remains the crown jewel of American energy. It’s one of the most prolific oil fields in the world, with a geology that allows for multiple layers of productive rock to be tapped from a single well pad. This “stacked play” potential, combined with a mature infrastructure of pipelines and services, makes it the most cost-effective place to produce oil in the United States. In a world of volatile energy prices, having the lowest cost of production is king.

This $13 billion deal is a vote of confidence in the long-term viability of the Permian. It tells us that despite the global push towards decarbonization, the industry’s largest and most sophisticated players believe that oil and gas from this basin will be needed for decades to come.

The Kings of the Shale Patch

This trend of consolidation naturally benefits the largest and most well-capitalized companies. They have the balance sheets to make these multi-billion-dollar acquisitions and the technical expertise to integrate them effectively.

• ExxonMobil (XOM): Exxon’s massive acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources was the shot heard ‘round the energy world, a clear declaration that they were all-in on the Permian. This merger is a smaller echo of that same strategy. For Exxon, this trend is validation. It proves their strategic direction was correct. Furthermore, as smaller, less efficient players are bought out, it leads to a more rational market. There is less pressure from small companies to drill indiscriminately, which can help to stabilize supply and support prices. An investment in XOM is a bet on the continued dominance of integrated supermajors who can leverage scale across the entire energy value chain, from the wellhead in Texas to the gas station in Tokyo.

• Chevron (CVX): Not to be outdone, Chevron has also been a major consolidator, most notably with its own blockbuster deal to acquire Hess Corporation. While much of the focus of that deal was on Hess’s assets in Guyana, it also significantly bolstered Chevron’s position in the U.S. shale plays, including the Permian. Chevron, like Exxon, is playing the long game. They are using their financial might to secure low-cost, long-life assets that will be generating cash flow for many years. This ongoing consolidation in the Permian is good news for them. It reduces the number of competitors and reinforces the “bigger is better” mantra that currently defines the industry. Chevron’s strong balance sheet and commitment to shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) make it a cornerstone holding for any energy investor.

The Other Side of the Coin: Renewables and Risk

It’s crucial to balance this view. The long-term risk for the oil and gas industry is real. The transition to renewable energy is happening, albeit perhaps not as quickly as some activists would hope. This makes the industry’s focus on consolidation and cost-cutting even more critical. They are essentially preparing for a future where demand may plateau or decline, and only the lowest-cost producers will survive and thrive.

This is why a balanced energy portfolio should also include exposure to the other side of the equation. Companies like NextEra Energy (NEE), a leader in wind and solar generation, or First Solar (FSLR), a key manufacturer of solar panels, offer a hedge against the long-term risks facing fossil fuels.

Our Opinion: The Last Men Standing Will Be Giants

The $13 billion Permian deal is imperative. The U.S. shale industry is maturing, and the winners will be the companies that can achieve immense scale and ruthless efficiency. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are leading this charge. They are transforming from explorers into massive, factory-like manufacturing operations for hydrocarbons.

We believe that these supermajors are compelling investments not in spite of the energy transition, but because of it. They have the financial firepower to acquire the best assets, the technology to extract them cheaply, and the discipline to return mountains of cash to shareholders. They are positioning themselves to be the last, most profitable producers standing in a world that will still need oil and gas for the foreseeable future.

While the ESG narrative may cast a shadow, the cash flow tells a different story. The consolidation in the Permian is a signal that the giants of the industry are digging in for the long haul, and investors who align with them are likely to be rewarded.

The Digital Wild West: Your Weekly Crypto Watchlist

Strap in. We’re now leaving the relatively predictable world of stocks and entering the chaotic, exhilarating, and often baffling world of cryptocurrency. If the stock market is a china shop, the crypto market is a rodeo taking place inside that same shop during an earthquake. It’s a place of immense opportunity and equally immense risk, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye.

This is not a place for the timid. The narratives change daily, driven by a volatile mix of technological breakthroughs, community hype, regulatory fears, and pure, unadulterated speculation. But for those with a high-risk tolerance and a willingness to do their homework, there are fascinating developments to watch. Here’s what’s on our radar this week.

• Chainlink ($LINK): The big event for LINK holders and the broader decentralized finance (DeFi) community is the Smartcon conference, kicking off on November 4th. Why does this matter? Chainlink is the undisputed leader in oracle services. In simple terms, it provides a way for blockchains (which are self-contained) to securely interact with real-world data (like stock prices, weather, or sports scores). This is a critical piece of infrastructure for almost every advanced smart contract application. Smartcon is Chainlink’s flagship event, and historically, it’s where they announce major partnerships, technological upgrades, and their future roadmap. Look for announcements around their Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), which aims to be a standard for how different blockchains communicate. A significant partnership with a major financial institution or tech company could send the price of $LINK soaring. Conversely, a lackluster event could lead to a “sell the news” pullback. This is a high-stakes week for what is arguably one of the most fundamentally important projects in crypto.

• EtherFi ($ETHFI): The world of liquid staking is getting interesting. EtherFi is a project that allows users to stake their Ethereum (to help secure the network and earn rewards) while receiving a liquid token ($eETH) in return, which they can then use in other DeFi applications. This week is crucial for them as the voting period for a proposed $50 million token buyback program ends on November 3rd. A buyback is a classic financial move: the project uses its treasury funds to buy its own tokens from the open market, reducing the circulating supply and theoretically increasing the value of the remaining tokens. The approval of this proposal would be a strong signal of confidence from the team and community, likely providing a positive catalyst for the $ETHFI token price. It demonstrates a commitment to delivering value back to token holders.

• Pendle ($PENDLE): Pendle is one of the more innovative projects in DeFi, focusing on the tokenization and trading of future yield. It essentially allows users to make speculative bets on the future returns of staking and lending protocols. It’s complex, but it’s a market that is attracting serious attention from sophisticated DeFi users. Their community call on November 6th is one to watch. These calls are often where key updates on protocol performance, new integrations, or upcoming features are first discussed. Given the project’s rapid pace of innovation, any announcement about expanding to new blockchains or listing new types of yield assets could generate significant buzz and trading volume.

• Arbitrum ($ARB): Arbitrum is a leading Layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum, meaning it helps to make transactions on the Ethereum network faster and cheaper. It has a massive and vibrant ecosystem of applications built on top of it. This week, it begins Epoch 5 of its “DeFi Renaissance Incentive Program.” This is essentially a targeted stimulus package. The Arbitrum DAO (the governing body of the project) allocates millions of dollars’ worth of $ARB tokens to be distributed as extra rewards to users of specific applications on the network. The goal is to bootstrap liquidity and attract users. For traders, this is an opportunity. By tracking which applications are receiving these incentives, you can often “farm” these rewards, earning a high yield. It also tends to drive up the Total Value Locked (TVL) and activity within the Arbitrum ecosystem, which can have a positive reflexive effect on the price of the $ARB token itself.

Our Opinion: High Risk, High Reward, High Anxiety

Let’s be crystal clear: investing in these tokens is not the same as buying shares in Walmart. The crypto market is still the Wild West. Prices are driven by narratives and liquidity flows as much as by fundamentals. A single tweet from an influential figure can cause a 30% swing. Regulatory crackdowns are a constant, looming threat.

Our approach to crypto is to treat it as a speculative, high-growth portion of a portfolio, and only with capital you are fully prepared to lose. The projects listed above are on our watchlist because they have tangible events happening this week that could act as price catalysts.

• $LINK is the “blue-chip” infrastructure play.

• $ETHFI is a play on governance and tokenomics.

• $PENDLE is the high-innovation, high-complexity bet.

• $ARB is the ecosystem-wide growth play.

Each presents a different type of risk and reward. The key is to understand why you are investing. Are you betting on a conference announcement? A governance vote? The success of an incentive program? Having a clear thesis is your only defense against the market’s brutal volatility. This is not a “buy and hold forever” space for most assets. It’s an active, dynamic, and often stressful arena. Proceed with extreme caution.

The AI Tsunami: OpenAI’s Deals Are Reshaping Reality

Every so often in economic history, there is a moment of punctuation. A point in time that future historians will look back on as a clear inflection. The invention of the printing press. The dawn of the industrial revolution. The creation of the internet. We are living through another one right now, and its name is Artificial Intelligence.

And if AI is the revolution, then OpenAI has just declared itself emperor.

The list of deals and milestones that have emerged from the company in recent days is so staggering, so mind-bogglingly large, that it almost defies belief. Let’s just try to process the numbers, because they are the story:

• $500 billion Stargate AI supercomputer deal.

• $100 billion deal with Nvidia.

• $100 billion deal with AMD.

• $38 billion deal with Amazon.

• $25 billion deal with Intel.

• $20 billion deal with TSMC.

• $13 billion deal with Microsoft.

• $10 billion deal with Oracle.

• A “multi-billion-dollar” deal with Broadcom.

Let’s pause for a moment. The sheer scale of this capital commitment is unprecedented. We are talking about sums that dwarf the budgets of most nations, all being funneled into a single technological objective: building the infrastructure for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

On top of this, OpenAI has launched its own browser to compete with Chrome, is reportedly considering a $1 trillion IPO by 2027, and has been crowned the world’s most valuable private company. This is not a bubble. This is a tsunami of capital, talent, and ambition, and it is going to reshape every single industry on the planet. For investors, ignoring this is not an option. The only question is how to get exposure to this seismic shift.

Riding the Wave: The Picks and Shovels of the AI Gold Rush

During a gold rush, the most reliable way to make a fortune isn’t by digging for gold, but by selling the picks, shovels, and blue jeans to the miners. In the AI gold rush, the “picks and shovels” are the semiconductors and cloud infrastructure that power these massive models. OpenAI’s shopping list gives us a clear roadmap to the winners.

• Nvidia (NVDA): This is the most obvious, direct, and powerful play on the AI revolution. Nvidia’s GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) are the undisputed workhorses of AI. Training and running large language models like the ones OpenAI is building requires immense parallel processing power, and Nvidia’s CUDA architecture has a multi-year lead over any competitor. The $100 billion deal with OpenAI is a testament to this dominance. The demand for their H100 and upcoming B100 chips is so insatiable that they have become the single most important choke point in the entire AI ecosystem. An investment in NVDA is a bet that this dominance will continue. While its valuation is high, the growth trajectory is astronomical. It has become less of a semiconductor company and more of a foundational utility for the 21st century.

• Microsoft (MSFT): If Nvidia is selling the shovels, Microsoft is selling the land and the mining rights. As OpenAI’s largest and most important partner, Microsoft is inextricably linked to its success. OpenAI’s models run on Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure. The new $13 billion deal and the Lambda AI infrastructure deal both serve to deepen this integration. Microsoft is embedding OpenAI’s technology across its entire product suite, from Office and Windows to Bing and its developer tools. This creates a powerful flywheel: OpenAI’s technological advancements make Azure a more attractive cloud platform for other AI companies, which in turn drives more revenue for Microsoft. This allows them to fund further AI research and development. MSFT offers a more diversified, “safer” way to invest in the AI boom. You get the upside from their partnership with the world’s leading AI lab, but it’s balanced by their massive, stable enterprise software, gaming, and cloud businesses.

The list of partners—AMD, Intel, TSMC, Amazon, Oracle, Broadcom—shows that this wave is big enough to lift many boats. AMD (AMD) is emerging as the most credible challenger to Nvidia’s GPU dominance. TSMC (TSM) is the foundry that actually manufactures most of these advanced chips. Amazon (AMZN) and Oracle (ORCL) are racing to build out their own cloud AI infrastructure to compete with Microsoft.

Our Opinion: A Revolution You Can’t Afford to Miss

We are at the beginning of a capital expenditure cycle that will make all previous cycles look quaint. The numbers being thrown around by OpenAI are just the start. Every major tech company, every government, and every large corporation will be forced to invest heavily in AI to remain competitive.

The transformative potential is enormous, but so are the risks. Valuations in this sector are stretched, and the hype is palpable. This is why our focus is on the “picks and shovels” companies. While hundreds of AI application startups will fail, the demand for the underlying hardware and cloud platforms is a near certainty.

Nvidia (NVDA) is the pure-play, high-octane bet. Its leadership position is so entrenched that it’s hard to see it being dislodged in the medium term. Microsoft (MSFT) is the blue-chip, strategic play. It offers exposure to the very tip of the AI spear, wrapped in the safety and diversification of one of the world’s most successful companies.

The key is to focus on companies with a clear and demonstrable path to turning this AI hype into cold, hard cash. Right now, no two companies are doing that more effectively than Nvidia and Microsoft. Getting on the right side of this trade may be the single most important investment decision of this decade.

The World on a Chessboard: Geopolitics and Your Portfolio

For the past decade, many investors have been able to operate with a blissful ignorance of geopolitics. A world of low interest rates and relatively stable global trade meant you could focus on a company’s fundamentals without worrying too much about which country its CEO was from or where its supply chain ran. Those days are definitively over.

Today, the world is a chessboard, and every move—from a trade tariff to a military deployment—sends ripples across the entire board, impacting sectors and stocks in ways that are both profound and unpredictable. The savvy investor must now also be a student of international relations.

The Great Game: U.S.-China Relations

The single most important relationship on the planet is the one between the United States and China. After years of a bruising trade war and escalating technological competition, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon: reports indicate that the two nations are expected to sign a trade agreement next week.

This is a monumental development. A potential de-escalation of tensions between the world’s two largest economies would be a massive tailwind for global markets. It could lead to the reduction of tariffs, which would lower costs for a vast array of companies and ease inflationary pressures. Industries from agriculture (which relies heavily on exports to China) to technology would breathe a collective sigh of relief.

However, we must be cautious. The structural competition between the U.S. and China is not going away. This agreement is likely to be more of a “managed competition” framework than a true reconciliation. The battle for technological supremacy, particularly in AI and semiconductors, will continue. This brings us to two of the most important companies on the board:

• Apple (AAPL): No company better embodies the complexities of the U.S.-China relationship than Apple. It designs its products in California, but assembles the vast majority of them in China, and China is also one of its largest and most important consumer markets. A trade agreement and a reduction in tensions would be an enormous benefit for Apple, reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions and politically motivated consumer boycotts. The recent news that Apple is collaborating with Google to integrate a custom Gemini AI model into Siri for a 2026 launch shows its focus on staying at the forefront of the AI race, a race in which China is its chief competitor. A stable geopolitical environment is essential for Apple to execute its long-term strategy.

• Tesla (TSLA): Like Apple, Tesla has a deeply symbiotic and fraught relationship with China. Its Shanghai Gigafactory is a marvel of efficiency and a critical hub for its global production. China is also the world’s largest electric vehicle market. A trade agreement would secure Tesla’s position and reduce the risk of being caught in the political crossfire. However, Tesla also faces challenges, such as Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund announcing it will vote against Elon Musk’s gargantuan pay package. This highlights a different kind of geopolitical risk: the clash between a U.S.-style, founder-centric corporate culture and the more stakeholder-focused governance models of Europe and elsewhere.

Other Moves on the Board

The chessboard has many other active squares:

• U.S. Mission in Mexico: Reports of a potential U.S. troop deployment to Mexico to combat drug cartels introduce a new vector of instability on the U.S. border, with potential impacts on trade, immigration, and cross-border supply chains.

• Gaza International Force: The U.S. proposal for a two-year international force in Gaza signals a long-term engagement in one of the world’s most volatile regions, with implications for oil prices and regional stability.

• Palantir in Dubai: U.S. AI firm Palantir’s (PLTR) joint venture in Dubai shows how American tech companies are becoming instruments of foreign policy, aligning with U.S. allies in the Middle East.

Our Opinion: Geopolitical Alpha is the New Tech Alpha

For the foreseeable future, understanding geopolitics will be a source of “alpha,” or outperformance. The ability to anticipate how a trade deal, a conflict, or a new alliance will impact specific industries will be as valuable as understanding a company’s balance sheet.

The potential U.S.-China trade agreement is the most significant “known unknown” on the horizon. A positive outcome could trigger a broad market rally, especially for multinational companies like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) that have been walking a tightrope. A failure to reach an agreement could send markets tumbling.

Our strategy is not to try and predict these outcomes, which is a fool’s errand. Instead, it is to build a portfolio that is resilient to geopolitical shocks. This means:

1. Diversification: Not just across sectors, but across geographies. Having exposure to companies that are not overly dependent on a single country or supply chain is crucial.

2. Focus on Quality: In times of uncertainty, capital flows to quality. Companies with strong balance sheets, durable competitive advantages, and pricing power are better able to withstand geopolitical storms.

3. Hedging: Holding assets that traditionally do well in times of turmoil, such as U.S. Treasury bonds or even certain commodities, can provide a buffer.

The world is no longer flat; it’s a mountainous and treacherous landscape. Navigating it requires a new set of maps and a constant awareness of the shifting political winds.

Crystal Ball Gazing: Our Stock Market Forecast

So, where does this all leave us? We’ve walked through the lifelines for the American consumer, the drums of war, the shifting patterns of global travel, the consolidation of old energy, the rise of a new AI empire, and the complex geopolitical chessboard. It’s a dizzying array of conflicting signals. Now it’s time to put it all together and offer our forecast for the road ahead.

Let’s start with the big picture. We remain cautiously optimistic. The “Roar of The Bull” is real. It is being driven by a technological revolution in Artificial Intelligence that is so powerful, so deflationary in the long run, and so productivity-enhancing that it can paper over a multitude of sins. The sheer amount of capital being invested in AI will have a powerful multiplier effect across the economy, creating new jobs, new industries, and new efficiencies. This is a structural tailwind that cannot be overstated.

However, our optimism is heavily tempered by the “China Shop of Volatility.” The risks are not trivial. They are significant, numerous, and highly unpredictable. Our forecast is one of a “grind higher” market, not a straight-up, euphoric melt-up. It will be a two-steps-forward, one-step-back journey, punctuated by sharp, sudden pullbacks based on news headlines.

The Bull Case (Why We Go Higher):

1. AI & Tech Supercycle: The explosive capital expenditure and innovation in AI, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure are already propelling leading indices to new highs. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and their cloud and chip partners are at the center of a generational shift.

2. Consumer Resilience: The resumption of SNAP benefits and generally robust employment figures suggest that the average U.S. consumer is still spending. This supports sectors such as consumer staples (WMT, KR) and discretionary retail.

3. Corporate Earnings Recovery: Despite occasional earnings hiccups (looking at you, Pinterest!), the broad trend remains positive. Margins are expanding in tech and travel, while energy companies are reporting record cash flows.

4. Global Rebalancing: Any progress in the U.S.-China relationship, or even a truce, could ignite a broader rally, especially for multinational names exposed to Asia (AAPL, TSLA).

5. Monetary Policy Flexibility: While interest rates have risen, central banks still have a playbook for managing liquidity if financial conditions tighten too quickly.

The Bear Case (Where It Could Go Wrong):

1. Geopolitical Wildcards: Escalation in key flashpoints (Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East) could send energy prices soaring, disrupt supply chains, and trigger risk-off sentiment.

2. Political Instability: A protracted U.S. government shutdown, contentious election season, or unpredictable global leadership changes can all dampen confidence and cause sudden selloffs.

3. Valuation Risks: In tech and AI especially, valuations have climbed fast. Even a slight disappointment in earnings or a shift in sentiment can lead to sharp corrections.

4. Debt & Deficits: Spiraling government debt and persistent fiscal deficits could test the willingness of global investors to keep funding the U.S. and other developed markets without demanding more yield.

5. Inflation Surprises: If energy, housing, or wage inflation re-accelerate, central banks may be forced to keep rates higher for longer, pressuring equities and bonds alike.

Actionable Opportunity For Investors:

• Diversify, Diversify, Diversify: Don’t be overexposed to any single sector (even AI). Spread risk across geographies, industries, and asset classes. Diversification is your best shield against black swan events.

• Quality Over Hype: Focus on companies with strong balance sheets, proven management, and real, growing cash flows. In times of turmoil, market leaders (AAPL, MSFT, XOM, WMT) will generally outperform speculative plays.

• Embrace Some Defense: Consider defensive holdings in consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities, alongside your growth bets. These can help cushion your portfolio if volatility spikes.

• Maintain Liquidity: Keep some dry powder—cash or short-term fixed income can provide optionality in market corrections and let you pounce on bargains.

• Stay Informed, Not Obsessed: Monitor the news, but avoid letting every headline sway your decisions. Focus on your objectives and time horizon.

Parting Wisdom

If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back (and maybe a glass of wine—you’ve earned it). The late 2025 market is exhilarating, exhausting, and impossible to capture fully in one newsletter, but here’s what matters most:

• The bull can run further—but watch for flying china. AI and digital infrastructure are powering a multi-year surge, but this is not a market for the careless or complacent.

• Don’t ignore the world outside Silicon Valley. From grocery aisles and European tarmacs to oil fields and parliamentary corridors, critical trends are emerging everywhere.

• Global events can change the calculus overnight. Build a resilient portfolio and plan as if the unexpected will happen.

• Above all, keep learning. Stay humble. The market loves to humble those who think they have it all figured out.

As always, remember the golden rule of investing: no one cares about your money more than you do. Stay skeptical, stay diversified, and play the long game.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. Investing always involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns.