MARKET ALERT: The Great Reset of 2026 is Here (War, AI, & The Crypto Purge)

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The End of Year Market Briefing

The Calm Before the Storm? hardly.

If you thought the end of 2025 would be a quiet slide into the holidays, you haven't been paying attention. We are witnessing a convergence of historical pivots that will define the next decade of human history and capital allocation. We are not just looking at stock charts; we are looking at the rewriting of the global order.

From the corridors of the White House where marijuana policy is being rewritten, to the battlefields of Syria where U.S. airstrikes have resumed, to the digital trenches where China has just arguably checkmated the U.S. semiconductor blockade—everything is moving at warp speed.

The S&P 500 added nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 48 hours. Let that sink in. That is not normal market behavior; that is a manic melt-up driven by a mix of fear of missing out (FOMO) and a flight to safety in the largest, most liquid companies on earth. Meanwhile, the crypto markets have slaughtered retail investors holding "alternative" tokens, and silver is screaming higher, signaling that the smart money is hedging against a fiat collapse.

In this massive, comprehensive briefing, we are going to tear apart every major headline, look under the hood of the companies involved, and give you the raw, unfiltered truth about where your money should be as we barrel into 2026.

Let’s get to work.

The Geopolitical Powder Keg

Sectors Impacted: Defense, Energy, Precious Metals
Watch List: $LMT, $RTX, $XOM, $CVX, $GLD, $SLV

The illusion of peace is rapidly dissolving. While the equity markets are partying like it's 1999, the geopolitical reality looks more like 1939 or 1968. As investors, we cannot afford to ignore the drums of war, because war is inflationary, and it reshuffles the deck of global commerce.

1. The Venezuelan Tipping Point

President Donald Trump has dropped a bombshell: War with Venezuela is "possible." This isn't just rhetoric. Following the designation of the Venezuelan government as a terrorist organization, the U.S. has seized a second oil tanker. This is an act of economic warfare that usually precedes kinetic warfare.

The Market Implication:
If the U.S. engages militarily in South America, oil prices are going to react violently. While the U.S. is energy independent, the global market is fungible. Removing Venezuelan supply—or risking infrastructure damage in the region—creates a risk premium on crude.

• Growth Stock to Watch: Exxon Mobil ($XOM). With tensions rising, traditional energy giants with secure supply chains and fortress balance sheets become the ultimate hedge. If oil spikes, $XOM prints money.

2. The Middle East Reignites

The U.S. and Jordan have launched airstrikes on 70+ ISIS targets in Syria, dropping over 100 precision munitions. This is retaliation for the killing of U.S. soldiers. We are seeing a resurgence of conflict that many assumed was dormant.

• Opinion: The defense sector has been lagging the tech sector, but that gap is about to close. Governments do not cut defense spending when they are actively dropping bombs.

• Company to Watch: Rocket Lab ($RKLB). They just secured another defense space contract. As warfare moves to the orbital domain and satellite dependency increases, Rocket Lab is positioning itself not just as a launch provider, but as a prime defense contractor.

3. Putin’s "Respect" Ultimatum

Vladimir Putin’s statement that "No more wars" will happen if the West "respects" Russia is classic geopolitical gaslighting. He is essentially saying: "Give me what I want (Ukraine), and I’ll stop." The EU’s response? A €90 billion loan to Ukraine.

The Forecast: The war in Europe is not ending in 2026. It is becoming entrenched. This means the reconstruction trade is dead for now, and the armament trade is alive and well.

The Semiconductor Shockwave

Sectors Impacted: Technology, Semiconductors, Manufacturing
Watch List: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $SMIC (HK), $AMAT

This is the most critical story of the month, perhaps the year.

China Breaks the Blockade

For years, the U.S. strategy has been to starve China of advanced lithography machines (specifically EUV - Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) to prevent them from building cutting-edge AI chips.

The News: China has built its first EUV machine prototype.
The Reality: If this is viable at scale, the U.S. sanctions regime has failed. China can now theoretically produce 7nm, 5nm, and eventually 3nm chips without Western equipment.

Why This Matters:

1. Supply Glut Risk: If China floods the market with advanced legacy chips, margins for Western companies could collapse.

2. AGI Acceleration: Analysts are predicting this accelerates China’s path to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). A China with AGI and sovereign chip manufacturing is a formidable economic superpower that rivals the U.S. hegemony.

• The Loser: ASML ($ASML). They held a monopoly. If China has cracked the code, that monopoly is technically broken, even if China only supplies its domestic market. That’s a massive market ASML can never recapture.

• The Winner ( Ironically): Huawei. Though not public in the U.S., their resurgence drives the Chinese tech ecosystem.

• Stock to Watch: Intel ($INTC). Why? Because the U.S. government will now be in a panic. Expect massive subsidies to flow into Intel’s foundry business to ensure the U.S. maintains a lead. It’s a "too big to fail" play.

The AI Revolution & The Job Market Apocalypse

Sectors Impacted: Big Tech, Education, Human Capital
Watch List: $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META

We are no longer talking about "if" AI will take jobs. We are watching it happen in real-time.

1. The Automated Workforce

Gen Z is facing an unemployment crisis (5.8% for recent grads). Why? Because entry-level white-collar jobs are being vaporized by Large Language Models (LLMs).

• Goldman Sachs Advice: "Focus on unique skills." This is corporate speak for "Good luck."

• The Evidence: Anthropic let its AI, Claude, run a vending machine business. It made mistakes, then it corrected them, then it became profitable. This is the microcosm of the macro economy. Agents are coming.

2. Amazon’s Nuclear Ambitions

Amazon is building an $11 billion data center campus in Indiana. It will consume 2.2 gigawatts of power. To put that in perspective, that is enough to power a major city.

• The Trade: Energy infrastructure. AI runs on electricity. The grid cannot handle this demand.

• Stock to Watch: NextEra Energy ($NEE) or Dominion Energy ($D). The utilities that power these data centers are the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush.

3. The "On-Device" Shift

Google released FunctionGemma. This is an AI that lives on your phone, not in the cloud. It’s fast, private, and efficient.

• The Implication: The cloud bill for running AI is too high. The future is "Edge AI"—processing on the device.

• Stock to Watch: Apple ($AAPL). They are the kings of on-device hardware. As models shrink, the iPhone becomes the most powerful AI tool in history. However, watch out for the revived Antitrust Class Action regarding the App Store. The legal battles are the only thing holding Apple back from total dominance.

The Corporate Graveyard & The Rising Stars

Sectors Impacted: Media, EV, Software
Watch List: $TSLA, $ORCL, $NFLX, $SONY

1. Oracle ($ORCL): The Icarus of 2025

Oracle stock has plummeted 48% since September. A $475 billion loss in market cap.

• My Opinion: This is what happens when valuation gets disconnected from reality. Oracle rode the AI hype train without the foundational infrastructure to back it up compared to Azure or AWS.

• Lesson: Stop chasing parabolic charts. Gravity always wins.

2. Tesla ($TSLA): The Phoenix

• Bad News: A California court ruled "Full Autopilot" is misleading. License suspension risk.

• Good News: Musk’s $56 billion pay package was restored.

• The Sentiment: The market loves certainty. Knowing Musk is locked in (and getting paid) outweighs the regulatory slap on the wrist. Tesla is effectively a robotics and AI company disguised as a car company.

• Growth Watch: With CATL deploying humanoid robots in factories, Tesla’s "Optimus" bot becomes the most critical product in their pipeline. The car business is just the funding mechanism for the robot business.

3. TikTok’s Salvation

The U.S. sale closes next month. The national security nightmare is over (on paper).

• The Winner: Oracle ($ORCL)—Wait, didn't we just bash them? Yes, but they are the cloud provider for TikTok US. This deal closing is the one lifeline they have right now. It might be a dead-cat bounce opportunity.

The Crypto Purge (A Moment of Silence for the Alts)

Sectors Impacted: Cryptocurrency, Blockchain
Watch List: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL

If you are holding "Dino-coins" or 2024 hype tokens, you are likely in pain. The data released regarding the top 200 tokens is horrifying.

The "Rekt" List (Year-to-Date Drawdowns):

• $TIA: $7.00 → $0.50 (-92%)

• $BEAM: $0.03 → $0.003 (-90%)

• $DYDX: $2.20 → $0.18 (-91%)

• $THETA: $2.70 → $0.32 (-88%)

The Analysis:
A $1,000 investment in these "promising" projects is now worth $100. This is the flushing out of the system. We are seeing a divergence where Bitcoin acts as a store of value (digital gold), while utility tokens that have no users are going to zero.

• Opinion: This is healthy. The crypto market was bloated with vaporware.

• Forecast: Expect 2026 to be the year of "flight to quality." Institutions are not buying $BRETT or $BEAM. They are buying Bitcoin ETFs. Stick to the majors. The casino is closing; the bank is opening.

Financial Plumbing - The Central Bank Game

Sectors Impacted: Forex, Banking, Real Estate
Watch List: $UUP (Dollar Index), $TLT (Bonds)

1. Japan Breaks the Trend

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised rates to 0.75%, a 30-year high.

• Why this matters: The "Yen Carry Trade" (borrowing cheap Yen to buy US stocks) is getting more expensive. When Japan raises rates, global liquidity dries up. This is a massive headwind for risk assets that nobody is talking about because they are too distracted by AI.

2. The Fed’s Confusion

A US Fed official flagged "distorted data" as a reason to hold rates.

• Translation: The economy is weird right now. Inflation is cooling, but prices are high. Employment is high, but Gen Z can't get jobs. The metrics used since 1950 don't work in an AI-driven, post-pandemic economy. The Fed is flying blind.

3. The Silent Bull: Silver

Silver hit an All-Time High of $67.29/oz (+131% YTD).

• The Signal: Silver is an industrial metal (solar panels, electronics) and a monetary metal. Its explosion suggests that the manufacturing demand is real (green energy transition) AND that fiat currency debasement fears are rampant.

• Stock to Watch: Pan American Silver ($PAAS). High beta play on silver prices.

Social Policy & The Green Rush

Marijuana Rescheduling

Trump signing an Executive Order to expedite moving Marijuana to Schedule III is huge.

• The Shift: This recognizes medicinal value. It allows cannabis companies to deduct business expenses (280E tax code relief).

• The Trade: U.S. Multi-State Operators (MSOs).

• Stocks to Watch: Green Thumb Industries ($GTBIF) and Curaleaf ($CURLF). These companies have been operating with one hand tied behind their back. The shackles are coming off.

The Outlook for 2026

As we close out this briefing, we must synthesize this chaos into a coherent strategy.

The Bull Case:
Productivity is about to skyrocket. With AI agents (OpenAI's Codex, Google's FunctionGemma) entering the workforce, corporate margins will expand. Companies will do more with fewer employees. This is bullish for stock prices (but bad for social stability). The S&P 500 adding $1 trillion in two days shows the market is pricing in this productivity boom.

The Bear Case:
Geopolitics is the black swan. If the U.S. engages in Venezuela or Syria, or if China aggressively leverages its new chip capabilities, supply chains break. Combined with the BOJ tightening liquidity, we could see a sharp correction in Q1 2026.

My Prediction:
We are entering a "K-Shaped" market on steroids.

1. The Winners: Companies that own the AI infrastructure (Data Centers, Energy, Chips) and companies that own hard assets (Defense, Oil, Silver).

2. The Losers: Consumer discretionary (people without jobs don't buy things), speculative crypto, and legacy tech that missed the AI pivot (looking at you, Oracle).

Target for S&P 500: Volatile upward grind, driven by the "Magnificent 7" (or what's left of them), masking weakness in the broader Russell 2000.

Detailed Ticker Watchlist Summary

Don't Be a Hero

The market right now is designed to punish leverage. The volatility we are seeing—where huge caps drop 50% and silver doubles—is characteristic of a late-stage debt cycle.

Protect your capital. Focus on cash flow. Don't get distracted by the noise of 24-hour news cycles, but respect the trends. The world is changing faster than at any point in our lifetimes.

Stay liquid. Stay alert.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Owners, employees, and writers may hold positions in the securities mentioned. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire principal. Always conduct your own due diligence.